When my clients ask me for my 2021 Market Outlook, I gently laugh and say, “Well, let’s hope it is more accurate than last year’s.” On January 6, 2020 I noted that the upcoming year would likely be a “decent one” for the US economy. At the time, that statement seemed like a pretty safe […]
Our investment committee went into the election feeling quite positive about the equity markets for 2021. The outlook looked constructive whether the election produced a blue/red wave or divided government. As of this writing, the country is likely to end up with divided government: Democratic President and House of Representatives along with a Republican Senate. […]
The question I get most often from clients is, “Why is the stock market doing so well when the economy is suffering?” For most of the summer, the stock market has been buoyant. According to Barron’s, equity investors are up $13.1 trillion or 55.7% from the March 23rd lows and up $2.2T or 6.3% since […]
If you are a supporter of ESG investing (combining traditional investing with environmental, social and governance related issues), then COVID-19 may have a silver lining for you. ESG investing has been playing an outsized role in investment decisions since the beginning of the year. The virus has exposed the critical need for companies to beef […]
You will often hear, “so goes the consumer, so goes the United States economy.” This is a phenomenon that has grown during my lifetime, as we shifted away from a manufacturing economy to a more service-based economy. Look below at the chart and you will see that consumer spending does make up almost 70% of […]
There is no perfect measure to say how the stock market in the US is performing. Every major index you see mentioned on the news has some pros and cons. Typically, every nightly news report will mention the daily returns of the Big 3: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. […]
So what gives with the markets? Let’s use the S&P 500. It was down 33.9% from its 2020 high on February 19th to its low on March 23rd (shortest bear market on record). It then rebounded 31.9% until April 29th (a dizzying bounce) and has remained essentially flat ever since. Unfortunately, the S&P 500 is […]
In hindsight, it appears surprisingly easy to shut down an economy – we just did it in a few short weeks. I suspect it is much harder to open an economy back up again. What inspired so many Americans to shelter in place was a combination of worry for their own personal health and an […]
One of the constant comments from market participants and the talking heads on TV is that the investing community has no historical experience to draw from on how this epidemic will affect the US economy, the global economy and, by extension, investments. There’s no model to use as a reference point. Sure, the Spanish Flu […]
The relief bill known as the CARES Act was signed into law on Friday, March 27, 2020. It is designed to serve as a bridge between the time the US economy decelerates in response to Covid-19 and the time the economy is back up and running. Provisions of the CARES Act support a wide range […]
