The U.S Department of the Treasury defines the debt limit as “the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds and other payments.” The US Treasury goes on to […]
Markets crave stability, especially when it comes to the banking system. When confidence is questioned, volatility, confusion and panic can be the result. The current episode of bank failures will likely be no exception. Much depends on the effectiveness of the government’s response to this crisis. Last week saw the second largest bank failure in […]
In the modern mainstream media era where everything is “breaking news”, please don’t assume I’m falling prey to this same use of hyperbole just to get eyeballs. There really is a LOT of news this week that could “possibly” change the outlook for stock and bond returns for the rest of 2023. I put possibly […]
“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It is not knowable.” Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. News conference, December 14, 2022. We are not smarter than the Federal Reserve, so we […]
I’ve had a few clients ask me about the stock market swings this week. First, we had the 700-point rally in the Dow on Wednesday, and then on Friday the market opened down over 300 points. I’m guessing some of you may have wondered the same thing, so I wanted to share my thoughts. For […]
What follows is a hypothetical conversation in response to the question, “When will the markets go back up?” “Are we there yet?” No. “Do you mean we aren’t at the bottom yet?” Quite possibly. “Or that we aren’t ready for the next turnaround?” That, too. “How long will the bear market last?” That depends, but […]
The recent market rally inspired several calls from clients asking whether it is time to invest money again, after a bruising first half of the year. With the past week seeing stocks retreat off their recent highs, it is a good time to review how one should invest in unpredictable markets. The S&P reached its […]
Humor me while I repeat myself. There are some points worth making more than once. Especially when it comes to inflation, recession, and the stock market. In my May 2, 2022 Blog, What’s Up with Current Market Volatility, I referenced the following: The Federal Reserve oversees the control of inflation. The key tools the Fed […]
We are amid one of those nasty pullbacks, and this time there is no place for an investor to hide. April ended with the S&P 500 and the All World Country Index Ex US down 13% year to date, while the US aggregate bond index has fallen 9%. Commodities have been a bright spot, but […]
For the vast majority of 2022 we believe the markets will be waiting and responding to everything the Fed does and everything the Fed says. The working assumption has been that we will see 3-4 rate hikes in 2022. To a certain extent that is already priced into the stock and bond market. As a […]
