For the vast majority of 2022 we believe the markets will be waiting and responding to everything the Fed does and everything the Fed says. The working assumption has been that we will see 3-4 rate hikes in 2022. To a certain extent that is already priced into the stock and bond market. As a […]
Looking for the return to normalcy in 2022? Expectations could be the key. 2021: the Economy, Americans, and the Markets During 2021 the economy continued its steep, rapid recovery from the deep, pandemic recession to an economy with close to 5% GDP growth and near full employment. Corporate profits soared, innovation and entrepreneurship accelerated, and […]
Monday’s market meltdown was blamed on Evergrande, a real estate development company in China. Real estate growth in China has long been a hot button issue for investors. It’s been EIGHT YEARS since we saw 60 minutes do a piece on the empty Chinese cities (apologies for the Australian version, we can’t seem to find […]
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is massive and complicated – impacting individuals, businesses, educators, state and local governments, while addressing the pandemic itself. The one aspect that would appear to be straight forward is the provision for stimulus checks, which are currently being sent out to most Americans. But that is not entirely […]
When my clients ask me for my 2021 Market Outlook, I gently laugh and say, “Well, let’s hope it is more accurate than last year’s.” On January 6, 2020 I noted that the upcoming year would likely be a “decent one” for the US economy. At the time, that statement seemed like a pretty safe […]
Our investment committee went into the election feeling quite positive about the equity markets for 2021. The outlook looked constructive whether the election produced a blue/red wave or divided government. As of this writing, the country is likely to end up with divided government: Democratic President and House of Representatives along with a Republican Senate. […]
The question I get most often from clients is, “Why is the stock market doing so well when the economy is suffering?” For most of the summer, the stock market has been buoyant. According to Barron’s, equity investors are up $13.1 trillion or 55.7% from the March 23rd lows and up $2.2T or 6.3% since […]
If you are a supporter of ESG investing (combining traditional investing with environmental, social and governance related issues), then COVID-19 may have a silver lining for you. ESG investing has been playing an outsized role in investment decisions since the beginning of the year. The virus has exposed the critical need for companies to beef […]
You will often hear, “so goes the consumer, so goes the United States economy.” This is a phenomenon that has grown during my lifetime, as we shifted away from a manufacturing economy to a more service-based economy. Look below at the chart and you will see that consumer spending does make up almost 70% of […]
There is no perfect measure to say how the stock market in the US is performing. Every major index you see mentioned on the news has some pros and cons. Typically, every nightly news report will mention the daily returns of the Big 3: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. […]
