Our Take on the Fed Decision – Timing is All

September 21, 2015 2:34 pm

“Lower for longer,” the adage for the Federal Reserve, was interpreted as “lower for much longer” after last week’s decision to hold rates steady. I heard James Bullard, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, clarify this morning that the Fed wants to follow the doctrine of “Go early; go gradually.” […]

Pessimism and Warning Signs

August 3, 2015 2:00 pm

Investor sentiment is lousy right now. The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) is reporting pessimism is at a two year high; the week of July 15th saw the biggest outflows from US equities since 2011 (Citigroup); money manager bears outnumber bulls when it comes to the price of gold for the first time in […]

Stick with Risk Diversification

December 1, 2014 12:00 am

Risk diversification works, but not always the way investors might want it to.

Diversification is designed both to keep investors out of deep trouble in bear markets and to give them decent exposure to bull markets. It often reflects a middle of the …

Wishful Isolationism

November 3, 2014 12:00 am

Within the last 32 trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,162 points and then rapidly gained it all back – plus 100 points. Short term, rapid-fire repositioning is often blamed on program traders, hedge funds, leveraged investors a…

When it Comes to Inflation, Expectations Matter

July 7, 2014 12:00 am

Portfolio Commentary – StrategicPoint of View®: July 7, 2014

Much has been made of the lack of volatility in the markets in recent months. Today we tackle one possible source of this elusive volatility: inflation.

Inflation is not a benign…

Market Commentary – StrategicPoint of View®: June 2, 2014

June 2, 2014 12:00 am

See-Saw
One side bulls (equity market optimism); the other side bears (bond market pessimism). More often than not, the see-saw goes up and down, creating volatility. Thus far this year, the two sides are balancing each other out, legs dangling. Neithe…

Risk in 2014

May 5, 2014 12:00 am

It has been some months since we have written about downside risks for markets. While our overall outlook is positive for 2014, it is important to keep in mind some of the risk factors that can introduce volatility into portfolio returns.

Risk #1: Ma…

The Face of Volatility

March 19, 2014 12:00 am

I get nervous when I begin to see a false sense of security among my clients. Investors may fear the worst (“I just don’t want to go through another 2008!”) but often bank on earning consistently good returns in years when the markets…