Three Big Events This Week That Could Shape 2023 Returns

January 30, 2023 10:17 am

In the modern mainstream media era where everything is “breaking news”, please don’t assume I’m falling prey to this same use of hyperbole just to get eyeballs. There really is a LOT of news this week that could “possibly” change the outlook for stock and bond returns for the rest of 2023. I put possibly […]

2023 Market Outlook

January 3, 2023 12:41 pm

“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It is not knowable.” Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. News conference, December 14, 2022. We are not smarter than the Federal Reserve, so we […]

Wild Swings in the Market

December 2, 2022 12:37 pm

I’ve had a few clients ask me about the stock market swings this week. First, we had the 700-point rally in the Dow on Wednesday, and then on Friday the market opened down over 300 points. I’m guessing some of you may have wondered the same thing, so I wanted to share my thoughts. For […]

When Will the Markets Go Back Up?

October 17, 2022 12:15 pm

What follows is a hypothetical conversation in response to the question, “When will the markets go back up?” “Are we there yet?” No. “Do you mean we aren’t at the bottom yet?” Quite possibly. “Or that we aren’t ready for the next turnaround?” That, too. “How long will the bear market last?” That depends, but […]

Investing in Unpredictable Markets

August 29, 2022 9:37 am

The recent market rally inspired several calls from clients asking whether it is time to invest money again, after a bruising first half of the year. With the past week seeing stocks retreat off their recent highs, it is a good time to review how one should invest in unpredictable markets. The S&P reached its […]

Two Sides of the Same Coin: Inflation and Recession

June 13, 2022 11:46 am

Humor me while I repeat myself. There are some points worth making more than once. Especially when it comes to inflation, recession, and the stock market. In my May 2, 2022 Blog, What’s Up with Current Market Volatility, I referenced the following: The Federal Reserve oversees the control of inflation. The key tools the Fed […]

What’s Up With Current Market Volatility?

May 2, 2022 10:38 am

We are amid one of those nasty pullbacks, and this time there is no place for an investor to hide. April ended with the S&P 500 and the All World Country Index Ex US down 13% year to date, while the US aggregate bond index has fallen 9%. Commodities have been a bright spot, but […]

Rate Hikes and Mid-Terms on the Horizon, what do they mean for stock returns?

January 21, 2022 3:33 pm

For the vast majority of 2022 we believe the markets will be waiting and responding to everything the Fed does and everything the Fed says. The working assumption has been that we will see 3-4 rate hikes in 2022. To a certain extent that is already priced into the stock and bond market. As a […]

2022 Market Outlook

January 3, 2022 9:46 am

Looking for the return to normalcy in 2022? Expectations could be the key. 2021: the Economy, Americans, and the Markets During 2021 the economy continued its steep, rapid recovery from the deep, pandemic recession to an economy with close to 5% GDP growth and near full employment. Corporate profits soared, innovation and entrepreneurship accelerated, and […]

Why Evergrande is Worrying the Market

September 22, 2021 10:13 am

Monday’s market meltdown was blamed on Evergrande, a real estate development company in China. Real estate growth in China has long been a hot button issue for investors. It’s been EIGHT YEARS since we saw 60 minutes do a piece on the empty Chinese cities (apologies for the Australian version, we can’t seem to find […]