Markets crave stability, especially when it comes to the banking system. When confidence is questioned, volatility, confusion and panic can be the result. The current episode of bank failures will likely be no exception. Much depends on the effectiveness of the government’s response to this crisis. Last week saw the second largest bank failure in […]
“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It is not knowable.” Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. News conference, December 14, 2022. We are not smarter than the Federal Reserve, so we […]
What follows is a hypothetical conversation in response to the question, “When will the markets go back up?” “Are we there yet?” No. “Do you mean we aren’t at the bottom yet?” Quite possibly. “Or that we aren’t ready for the next turnaround?” That, too. “How long will the bear market last?” That depends, but […]
The recent market rally inspired several calls from clients asking whether it is time to invest money again, after a bruising first half of the year. With the past week seeing stocks retreat off their recent highs, it is a good time to review how one should invest in unpredictable markets. The S&P reached its […]
We are amid one of those nasty pullbacks, and this time there is no place for an investor to hide. April ended with the S&P 500 and the All World Country Index Ex US down 13% year to date, while the US aggregate bond index has fallen 9%. Commodities have been a bright spot, but […]
Looking for the return to normalcy in 2022? Expectations could be the key. 2021: the Economy, Americans, and the Markets During 2021 the economy continued its steep, rapid recovery from the deep, pandemic recession to an economy with close to 5% GDP growth and near full employment. Corporate profits soared, innovation and entrepreneurship accelerated, and […]
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is massive and complicated – impacting individuals, businesses, educators, state and local governments, while addressing the pandemic itself. The one aspect that would appear to be straight forward is the provision for stimulus checks, which are currently being sent out to most Americans. But that is not entirely […]
When my clients ask me for my 2021 Market Outlook, I gently laugh and say, “Well, let’s hope it is more accurate than last year’s.” On January 6, 2020 I noted that the upcoming year would likely be a “decent one” for the US economy. At the time, that statement seemed like a pretty safe […]
Our investment committee went into the election feeling quite positive about the equity markets for 2021. The outlook looked constructive whether the election produced a blue/red wave or divided government. As of this writing, the country is likely to end up with divided government: Democratic President and House of Representatives along with a Republican Senate. […]
The question I get most often from clients is, “Why is the stock market doing so well when the economy is suffering?” For most of the summer, the stock market has been buoyant. According to Barron’s, equity investors are up $13.1 trillion or 55.7% from the March 23rd lows and up $2.2T or 6.3% since […]
