Month One, 2017

February 6, 2017 10:39 am

It was so clear, right? Trifecta. We were headed for tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation. The economy was about to take off, replete with a rising dollar and budding inflation. At least that was the popular story at the beginning of the year. Not so fast. Nothing is as easy as it seems. Distraction […]

2017 US Equity Market Outlook

January 3, 2017 11:28 am

Investors are forever hopeful (why else would we invest?). And the start of a new year often brings outsized optimism.  2017 feels particularly bullish for the equity markets, however, with both investors and businesses cheering. I feel the same hopefulness, but I am reminded that 2016 was humbling in many ways. 2016 did not go […]

Post Election: Now What?

November 9, 2016 1:17 pm

While the nation is adjusting to this year’s unprecedented election, it is important to take the longer view. Every four years a substantial part of the electorate is devastated by election results while an equally large number of individuals are elated and filled with great hope. In spite of the extreme vitriol expressed by the […]

The Fallout from Brexit

June 27, 2016 10:50 am

The British vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was a local shock—a political event. In and of itself, it was not an economic event, although it could have major financial repercussions. In an immediate response, markets reacted forcefully responding to concerns that the ultimate economic and political outcomes are indeterminate and ambiguous. As is […]

Equity Markets and Summer Volatility

June 6, 2016 12:16 pm

Last August/September the S&P 500 fell 11%. It recovered its losses by early November. For the first six weeks of 2016, the market dropped 12%, and then climbed back to even by mid-March.  But between October 2007 and March of 2009, the S&P 500 fell over 50% and did not see new highs until March of […]

Putting Your Cash to Work

March 28, 2016 10:30 am

It is not unusual for a client to call me and want to put some cash to work. “Is this a good time?” the client often asks. While I am a firm believer in investing, how I answer that question depends on the person I am talking to. Many people find it difficult to part […]

Outlook for a Recession

February 29, 2016 5:59 pm

If one looks at the returns for the S&P 500 from 1980 through 2015, the “down years” (returns of negative 7% or greater at year end) have all been tied to one of three events: a recession, a bubble bursting, or a credit crisis. In this week’s commentary, I talk about the first cause of […]

Talking you off the Ledge

February 1, 2016 3:56 pm

January was an exceptionally rocky month for stocks. But our clients have been remarkably quiet, calling us infrequently about the markets. Have we done an extremely good job of educating them not to panic? Or have they just come to accept volatility’s drama? Or, are they simply very busy and ignoring the negative sentiment pervading […]