Post Election: Now What?

November 9, 2016 1:17 pm

While the nation is adjusting to this year’s unprecedented election, it is important to take the longer view. Every four years a substantial part of the electorate is devastated by election results while an equally large number of individuals are elated and filled with great hope. In spite of the extreme vitriol expressed by the […]

The Fallout from Brexit

June 27, 2016 10:50 am

The British vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was a local shock—a political event. In and of itself, it was not an economic event, although it could have major financial repercussions. In an immediate response, markets reacted forcefully responding to concerns that the ultimate economic and political outcomes are indeterminate and ambiguous. As is […]

Equity Markets and Summer Volatility

June 6, 2016 12:16 pm

Last August/September the S&P 500 fell 11%. It recovered its losses by early November. For the first six weeks of 2016, the market dropped 12%, and then climbed back to even by mid-March.  But between October 2007 and March of 2009, the S&P 500 fell over 50% and did not see new highs until March of […]

Outlook for a Recession

February 29, 2016 5:59 pm

If one looks at the returns for the S&P 500 from 1980 through 2015, the “down years” (returns of negative 7% or greater at year end) have all been tied to one of three events: a recession, a bubble bursting, or a credit crisis. In this week’s commentary, I talk about the first cause of […]

Talking you off the Ledge

February 1, 2016 3:56 pm

January was an exceptionally rocky month for stocks. But our clients have been remarkably quiet, calling us infrequently about the markets. Have we done an extremely good job of educating them not to panic? Or have they just come to accept volatility’s drama? Or, are they simply very busy and ignoring the negative sentiment pervading […]

A Volatile Start to 2016: What’s Driving the Markets These Days

January 21, 2016 8:06 pm

There’s an old axiom that when looking to buy a house, the only three things that matter are “Location, Location, Location.” Well as 2016 has started, the market has really begun to worry about “Oil, Oil, Oil.” Yes there are other issues, many of which you are all quite familiar with, but at this point […]

2016 Outlook: The Wall of Worry

January 4, 2016 5:21 pm

Going into 2016 the Wall of Worry is high. Then again, stocks traditionally climb that wall of worry. Even in 2015, when there seemed to be a mountain of fears, stocks were resilient. The Nasdaq ended up; the S&P was pushed very modestly into positive territory and the Dow was essentially flat when dividends were […]